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import pandas as pd
import requests
import json
from datetime import timedelta,datetime, date
from io import StringIO
codigos = {'AN':'Andalucía',
'AR':'Aragón',
'AS':'Asturias',
'CN':'Canarias',
'CB':'Cantabria',
'CM':'Castilla-La Mancha',
'CL':'Castilla y León',
'CT':'Cataluña',
'EX':'Extremadura',
'GA':'Galicia',
'IB':'Islas Baleares',
'RI':'La Rioja',
'MD':'Comunidad de Madrid',
'MC':'Región de Murcia',
'NC':'Navarra',
'PV':'País Vasco',
'VC':'Comunidad Valenciana',
'CE':'Ceuta',
'ML':'Melilla'
}
population = pd.read_html("https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anexo:Provincias_y_ciudades_aut%C3%B3nomas_de_Espa%C3%B1a")[0]
population.Población = population.Población.str.replace(".","").astype(int)
population = population.groupby("Comunidad autónoma").sum()["Población"].to_dict()
r = requests.get("https://covid19.isciii.es/resources/serie_historica_acumulados.csv")
text = r.text[0:r.text.index("NOTA")]
spain = pd.read_csv(StringIO(text)).dropna(subset=["CCAA"])
spain.columns = [c.strip() for c in spain.columns]
spain["Provincia"] = spain["CCAA"].apply(lambda x: codigos[x])
spain["Poblacion"] = spain.Provincia.apply(lambda x: population[x])
spain["Nuevos_Casos"] = spain.groupby("Provincia")["CASOS"].diff()
spain["Casos_x_1000"] = 1000*spain.CASOS / spain.Poblacion
spain["Nuevos_Casos_x_1000"] = 1000* spain.Nuevos_Casos / spain.Poblacion
spain["Nuevos_Casos_Ultima_Semana"] = spain.groupby("Provincia")["Nuevos_Casos"].rolling(7).sum().reset_index(0,drop=True)
spainc = spain[spain.CASOS > 1000]
fig = {
"data":[ {
"y":spainc[(spainc["Provincia"]==cat)]["Nuevos_Casos_Ultima_Semana"].to_list(),
"x":spainc[(spainc["Provincia"]==cat)]["CASOS"].to_list(),
"text": spainc[(spainc["Provincia"]==cat)]["FECHA"].to_list(),
"name": cat,
"mode": "lines+markers"
} for cat in sorted(spain["Provincia"].unique()) ],
"layout":{
"title":"Exito frenando el coronavirus por comunidad",
"xaxis":{
"title": "Casos Totales",
"type":"log"
},
"yaxis":{
"title": "Casos Nuevos Ultima Semana",
"type":"log"
}
}
}
local = json.dumps(fig)
aggregated = spain.groupby(["FECHA"],as_index=False).sum()[["FECHA","CASOS","Nuevos_Casos","Nuevos_Casos_Ultima_Semana"]].sort_values("CASOS")
fig = {
"data": [{
"y":aggregated["Nuevos_Casos_Ultima_Semana"].to_list(),
"x":aggregated["CASOS"].to_list(),
"name": "casos totales",
"mode": "lines+markers"
}],
"layout":{
"title":"Exito frenando el coronavirus total",
"xaxis":{
"title": "Casos Totales",
"type":"log"
},
"yaxis":{
"title": "Casos Nuevos Ultima Semana",
"type":"log"
}
}
}
total = json.dumps(fig)
from scipy.optimize import curve_fit
import numpy as np
from numpy import linspace
aggregated["UNIX"] = pd.to_datetime(aggregated["FECHA"],dayfirst=True)
def gauss(x, A,mu,sigma):
return A*np.exp(-(x-mu)**2/(2.*sigma**2))
p0 = [50000, 40, 5]
popt, pcov = curve_fit(gauss,
aggregated.index.to_series(),
aggregated['Nuevos_Casos_Ultima_Semana'],
p0,
method='dogbox')
x = np.linspace(1, 90, 90)
y = gauss(x, *popt)
xdate = pd.Series(x).apply(lambda x: aggregated.UNIX.min() + timedelta(days=x) )
prediction = pd.DataFrame(data={"y":pd.Series(y),"UNIX":xdate})
prediction = prediction[prediction.y > 1]
fig = {
"data":[ {
"y":aggregated["Nuevos_Casos_Ultima_Semana"],
"x":aggregated.UNIX,
"name": "Nuevos Casos Ultima Semana",
"mode": "lines+markers"
},{
"y":prediction.y,
"x":prediction.UNIX,
"name": "prediccion",
"mode": "lines"
} ],
"layout":{
"yaxis":{
}
}
}
prediction = json.dumps(fig)
template = """
<div class="figure">
<div class="figure-error">
</div>
<div class="figure-plot" id="local_corona">
Code could not finish, this are some reasons why this happen.
- Plot name not defined. The first parameter of the shortcode is the name.
- There is a syntax error. check browser console.
</div>
<script>
function draw(){
test = document.getElementById("local_corona");
if (test == null){
console.log("The plot name is not defined")
return
}
fig = null
fig = %s
if (!fig) {
test.innerText = "ERROR: fig variable is not defined"
return
}
test.innerText = null
Plotly.plot(test ,fig);
}
draw()
</script>
</div>
<div class="figure">
<div class="figure-error">
</div>
<div class="figure-plot" id="total_corona">
Code could not finish, this are some reasons why this happen.
- Plot name not defined. The first parameter of the shortcode is the name.
- There is a syntax error. check browser console.
</div>
<script>
function draw(){
test = document.getElementById("total_corona");
if (test == null){
console.log("The plot name is not defined")
return
}
fig = null
fig = %s
if (!fig) {
test.innerText = "ERROR: fig variable is not defined"
return
}
test.innerText = null
Plotly.plot(test ,fig);
}
draw()
</script>
</div>
<div class="figure">
<div class="figure-error">
</div>
<div class="figure-plot" id="prediction_corona">
Code could not finish, this are some reasons why this happen.
- Plot name not defined. The first parameter of the shortcode is the name.
- There is a syntax error. check browser console.
</div>
<script>
function draw(){
test = document.getElementById("prediction_corona");
if (test == null){
console.log("The plot name is not defined")
return
}
fig = null
fig = %s
if (!fig) {
test.innerText = "ERROR: fig variable is not defined"
return
}
test.innerText = null
Plotly.plot(test ,fig);
}
draw()
</script>
</div>
"""
print(template % (local, total, prediction))
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